Bosphorus may be a strait for the world – a choke point in global waters – but for the people of Istanbul, the beautiful waterway represents the city’s soul. No matter how taxed you are, once you get onto a ferry to get to the other half of city, on the facing continent, you are taken over by the fulfilling experience of nature at its best – and its purest.
Interestingly, the enchanting strait is no less magical when it comes to what it could be leveraged for in international politics. There is a reason why the ancient Byzantium, former Constantinople, and the modern day Istanbul, remained such a coveted city for global powers throughout most known history.
Today, Bosphorus represents Russia’s gateway to Europe through the crucial warm water ports in the Black Sea, which can be used around the year. The right to passage gives Russia significant influence in the Mediterranean, thanks to its Black Sea fleet. Similarly, vessels coming to Russia – and other Black Sea states – have to navigate through the busy strait at the heart of Istanbul.
As nice as this may seem to Turkey, it has also put it into a difficult position amidst the power struggle between Russia and the US, among others. In case of hostilities, both heavyweights know that the assent of Turkey in the straits could be a game-changer.
It was because of such sensitive nature of the straits – and the threat to Turkey from the expanding fascist Italy then – that the world powers had reached the Montreux Convention in 1936, which governs the rules of the game in the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits.
At that time, the treaty had given control of these erstwhile internationally-governed waters to Turkey under certain terms. It limits the number, and kind, of warships that can pass through, and the duration for which they can remain in the Black Sea, while providing a free, toll-free, passageway to civilian ships at the same time, in times of peace.
Now, something is happening in Istanbul which could bring 1936 back.
The canal and the craziness
Istanbul Canal, a flagship project of the Turkish government, is planned to be an artificial, 45 kilometers long waterway, on the European side of Istanbul, which will run roughly parallel to the Bosphorus. The foundation stone for the first of the 6 planned bridges was laid on 26th June, 2021. Erdogan has called it his ‘crazy but magnificent’ project.
Istanbul Canal is expected to significantly reduce the congestion in Bosphorus, which is currently one of the busiest waterways in the world with the average waiting time of about 14 hours for normal vessels, but which sometimes can get much longer.
As the Bosphorus is an S-shaped strait with extremely sharp turns and has about 45,000 ships crossing it annually, the congestion in such difficult waters has resulted in some severe accidents in recent decades, with incidents of fire that lasted a month in 1979, a 20,000 tonnes of oil spillage in 1994, and near-misses, such as of the ship River Elbe which almost crashed into a waterfront mansion on the 1st of April, 2021.
Even so, not everyone is convinced about the worth of the project. The canal is estimated to cost a whopping $15 billion. Moreover, the initial estimate has been criticised for underestimating the potential cost and overestimating the revenues, projected to reach around $8 billion a year.
In addition to being expensive, it has been criticised for its potentially adverse impact on environment. Dissidents argue that it could potentially displace thousands and level hundreds of hectares of forest.
Moreover, it could impact sea life as well. The Black Sea is 50cm higher than the Marmara sea, and the difference in salinity of the two seas, may result in a change in composition of the latter.
Experts point out that the flow of cellular organisms into Marmara will result in a higher demand of oxygen, and thus create a breeding ground for bacteria and other organisms which create a sulphurous gas which smells like rotten eggs – and could spread in Istanbul. There are fears that it could severely affect sea life in the Marmara Sea as well.
The upside, according to the government
Yet, for the government the benefits of the project outweigh the costs. For one, it argues that the Bosphorus would become cleaner with lesser waste water from ships, lesser traffic, and safer for the people of the city. Similarly, the damage to the forest area is planned to be compensated with green archaeological parks lining up the coast of the new canal.
Moreover, the government expects the canal to provide a sizeable stimulus to the economy of Istanbul, a city that houses about a fifth of the the total population and is responsible for about a 3rd of country’s total value production – or the GDP.
Add to this the fact that the canal will provide a big impetus to construction – the sector that accounts for 8% of the economy directly, and about 30% when all the linked industries are considered.
The banks of the canal will have earthquake-resistant, residential developments expected to house about 500,000 people. The prospect of the canal has already meteorically increased the value of those lands, which along with other canal-related investments, is seen as a source of foreign currency providing support to the frail Turkish Lira.
Alongside all this, the government claims the project will reimburse itself. Currently Turkey is able to collect no taxes from vessels crossing the Bosphorus, as per the Montreux Convention. With the canal, however, the authorities expect a new source of revenue. With a reduced waiting time for ships with the new waterway, an increased traffic is expected in Turkish waters too. According to – somewhat optimistic – government estimates, 54,900 ships could sail through the canal in 2026, and the figure will rise to 68,000 in 2039.
One canal to rule them all
Yet, something besides the economy or the environment may be the central motivation for the project. Analysts believe that the canal will lend more leverage to Turkey on the Bosphorus.
On the face of it, it seems paradoxical to expect Istanbul canal to increase the importance of the already-existing strait. But Turkey could negotiate the terms of the Montreux Convention as they apply to the new canal, and that can hardly happen without some form of renegotiation about the rules that govern the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits.
Thus, what in Erdogan’s own words is his ‘crazy but magnificent’, is indeed expensive. But if it works, and with astute moves on the political chessboard, it may give more weight to Turkey in the region.
Irked by recognition of Turkey’s right to block free passage through Bosphorus and the Dardanelles whenever Turkey suspected a threat, Stalin lamented that, “The result [of Montreux Convention] was that a small state [Turkey] supported by Great Britain held a great state by the throat and gave it no outlet.”
Turkey, being central to NATO, is not dependent on Britain anymore. At the same time, Putin seeks good relations with Turkey, given its ability to control the straits with direct as well as indirect measures – such as marking which ships are dangerous, and establishing the protocol on how they can pass.
Thus, a politically more powerful Turkey, than what Stalin had been complaining about, sits at the centre of Asia and Europe as well as between Russia and US-NATO. The new canal will tighten that hold.
(Earlier version of this article was published in the Daily Sabah and may be accessed here)
Policy Pakistan 